Here is this the market forecast for the week of 1/30-2/3. Rates dropped this week thanks to the Fed announcing LOW RATES THROUGH 2014! So if you know anyone looking to buy or refi, have them give me call!
Market Comment Mortgage bond prices were higher last week which pushed mortgage interest rates lower. Rates were helped considerably by the Fed announcement which indicated they would try to keep rates low through 2014. This was a significant revision to prior remarks which set 2013 as the timeframe. The Fed went on to note that global markets pose significant downside risk to the US economic outlook and inflation remains subdued. Much of the data released was bond friendly. Higher than expected weekly jobless claims and weaker than expected GDP data helped rates hold the improvements towards the end of the week. Mortgage bonds ended the week better by almost a discount point. LOOKING AHEAD Economic Indicator | Release Date & Time | Consensus Estimate | Analysis | Personal Income and Outlays | Monday, Jan. 30, 8:30 am, et | Up 0.2%, Up 0.1% | Important. A measure of consumers’ ability to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates. | PCE Core Inflation | Monday, Jan. 30, 8:30 am, et | Up 0.1% | Important. A measure of price increases for all domestic personal consumption. Weaker figure may help rates improve. | Q4 Employment Cost Index | Tuesday, Jan. 31, 8:30 am, et | Up 0.2% | Very important. A measure of wage inflation. Weakness may lead to lower rates. | Consumer Confidence | Tuesday, Jan. 31, 10:00 am, et | 63.5 | Important. An indication of consumers’ willingness to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates. | ADP Employment | Wednesday, Feb. 1, 8:30 am, et | 280k | Important. An indication of employment. Weakness may bring lower rates. | ISM Index | Wednesday, Feb. 1, 10:00 am, et | 54 | Important. A measure of manufacturer sentiment. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates. | Weekly Jobless Claims | Thursday, Feb. 2, 8:30 am, et | 375k | Important. An indication of employment. Higher claims may result in lower rates. | Preliminary Q4 Productivity | Thursday, Feb. 2, 8:30 am, et | Up 2.0% | Important. A measure of output per hour. Improvement may lead to lower mortgage rates. | Employment | Friday, Feb. 3, 8:30 am, et | 8.5%, Payrolls +200k | Very important. An increase in unemployment or weakness in payrolls may bring lower rates. | Factory Orders | Friday, Feb. 3, 10:00 am, et | Up 1.7% | Important. A measure of manufacturing sector strength. Weakness may lead to lower rates. | ISM The Institute for Supply Management (ISM), formerly the National Association of Purchasing Management (NAPM), releases the “Report on Business” on the first working day of each month. Part of this report is the “diffusion index,” which tracks the economy’s ups and downs fairly well. In conducting this survey, the ISM questions purchasing executives from over 250 industrial companies compiling data on production, orders, commodity prices, inventories, vendor performance, and employment. Each of the respondents is asked to rank the categories as “up” or “down.” Various weights are applied to the individual components to form the composite index. A composite index reading of 50 can be thought of as a “swing point.” A reading above 50 implies an increase in economic activity, while a reading below 50 indicates a decline. The ISM report is difficult for economists to forecast because there is little data upon which to base an educated guess. The report has a large “surprise factor” and can cause market swings. | |
Mark Ruhl
NMLS #105591 | Loan Officer
Mortgage Express
Direct 503.517.9341
Cell 503.317.7620
Fax 503.961.8694
http://www.markruhl.com
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